This week will mark another NFL draft in the making. Since 2010, I have made bold predictions on who will get drafted and where based on their NFL combine 40 time. What we basically have learned is that the 40 isn’t a good indicator for that.
This year, I’m going to look at who was ranked first in the 40 at their position AND last in the 40 and determine if these people will get drafted at all.
The dead last people aren’t dead last out of everybody at their position, but last based off of my criteria. I compile a list of athletes for each position. They are put on that list if they did one of the following:
- Ranked in the top 5 for any category done at the combine – 40 yard dash, 20 yard shuttle, 3 cone drill, standing long jump, vertical jump, and bench press.
- Ran the 40 yard dash sub 4.5.
Going back to 2010 is what I’m studying for this year’s draft. So, I will discuss the fastest and slowest that I have per position and discuss if I think they will be drafted.
The following fastest at their position WILL be drafted:
- Jake Brendel, C, UCLA
- Jason Spriggs, T, Indiana
- Charles Tapper, DE, Oklahoma
- Anthony Zettel, DT, Penn State
- Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State
- Joshua Perry, ILB, Ohio State
At those positions since 2010, if you ran the fastest 40 time you were drafted. Go ahead and get that bling watch you have been eyeing for your girlfriend(s).
Now the following athletes at these positions should be drafted, but there have been the rare occasion that the fastest prospect went undrafted:
- Keith Marshall, RB, Georgia
- Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame
- Jerrell Adams, TE, South Carolina
- Jonathon Jones, CB, Auburn
These last two positions are up in the air because speed isn’t the only necessary asset. Even though these two athletes probably will get drafted, I wouldn’t go out and get that new BMW until Sunday night and you know for sure:
- Joe Thuney, G, N.C. State
- T.J. Green, S, Clemson
Okay, so what if you run the slowest time? Are you dead to them? Not necessarily. You still have a shot. I’m not going to talk about all the positions, but let’s discuss enough to make some points.
If you are a cornerback and you run the slowest time, only one time since 2010 did you get drafted. And that person’s slow time was 4.54. If you run a 4.6, you can almost kiss the NFL draft goodbye. Thus, Jimmy Pruitt who ran a 4.73, I hope you can play safety or look at Arena Football.
As much as scouts don’t care about blazing speed for safeties, they also don’t like slow times. 4 times, the slowest safety did not get drafted. A.J. Stamps, you ran a 4.79. I hope you got your degree at Kentucky because chances are you will need it sooner than you thought.
Running backs are tricky because fullbacks are thrown in with them and it is tough to decipher who is who when I’m compiling these lists. But, slow running backs have been drafted so Shad Thornton, I’m saying you got a chance.
Scouts are always looking for speedy receivers, but slow receivers have been drafted as high as the second round. Clearly there are other things they look for. Bralon Addison ran a 4.66, but played for Oregon (could be a plus). I would say it is a 50/50 shot he goes, but I will lean towards NOT DRAFTED.
Another speed position is outside linebacker and slow OLB’s haven’t fared great in the draft. Gionni Paul ran a 5.05. I just think that is too slow to overcome. One other linebacker did run above 5 and did get drafted (last year in fact), but he had some size and strength Paul does not. I’m going to say he doesn’t get drafted.
Speed for the tight ends is becoming more coveted and once again slowness certainly doesn’t help here. David Morgan ran a 5.02 and it is not out of the realm of possibility that he could be drafted. He did well in some of the other categories so I say he will get drafted.
I’m going to stop there, but this should at least give you some interest to watch the draft and see if doing good or bad at the combine can really sway these NFL teams into drafting you. Feel free to leave some comments about what you think of my picks.
Photo courtesy of Thomson20192 on Flickr: https://www.flickr.com/photos/93558439@N05/