One of my favorite times of the football season, because I’m in the profession that I’m in, is the NFL combine.  The combine is going on right now and I have it running on my ipad non-stop watching future NFL hopefuls run the 40 and do other drills that are less interesting.

A few years ago, I started tracking combine results to see how much of an impact running a good 40 yard dash is for a prospect.  If you recall a few weeks ago, with my interview with Armand Robinson, he specifically cited that his poor showing in the 40 was the reason he thought he didn’t get drafted.

Here’s what I did:

  • I made a spreadsheet which was broken down by position for every position except quarterback and kicker/punter.  Those positions are in separate categories and running a good 40 isn’t a necessity.

  • I then wrote down every athlete for each position who could run in the 4.4’s or faster.  Basically, a 4.49 or faster.

  • Now because some positions the athletes can’t come close to that, I would write down the athletes who ran the five fastest 40 times at the position and that would be my starting point.

  • I then would go through every other drill at the combine (broad jump, vertical jump, etc.) and write down the athletes who posted the top 5 scores for those drills and that would be my total collection of athletes.  I figured if they couldn’t score in the top 5 of any of the categories, they probably aren’t worth mentioning.

  • I then made note of who was drafted and who wasn’t.

I kept these results starting with the 2010 draft.  Now these are only people who were invited to participate at the NFL combine.  Some people don’t attend and have pro days at their school.  Armand, for example, wasn’t invited and had to do a pro day in Oxford, Ohio.

First Ray Of Sunshine: If you have been invited to the NFL combine, that increases your chances right there of getting drafted.  

Now you got to go out and perform.  Leave everything on the field and show those GM’s why they should pick you.

Back to the 40 yard dash.  By position, here are the average times that drafted and non-drafted athletes (based on what I talked about above in my database) ran in the 40.

  • Running Backs – This position is becoming more and more devalued, but the drafted RB’s ran a 4.53 and the non-drafted RB’s ran a 4.57.  A pretty close margin to really tell anything except try to run fast.

  • Wide Receivers – In this pass happy league, you need receivers and they want FAST receivers.  Drafted receivers ran a 4.46.  Non-drafted receivers ran a 4.53.  Out of the 90 receivers that I collected in my database, 52 athletes ran 4.49 or faster and only 9 did not get drafted.  19 athletes that ran 4.50 or slower got drafted.  Deduce what you want.

  • Tight Ends – Everybody wants the next Jimmy Graham.  Drafted tight ends ran a 4.67 and non-drafted tight ends ran a 4.80.

  • Tackles – Tackles are the crown jewel of the offensive lineman.  Drafted T’s ran a 5.15, while non-drafted T’s ran a 5.28.

  • Guards and Centers – Compared to the other positions there weren’t as many and my findings show the 40 doesn’t really indicate anything for these two positions.  In fact, non-drafted centers ran faster than drafted ones.  Just be mean and play with a motor.

  • Defensive Ends – A good defensive end, especially a specialty like a speed rusher, can be very valuable.  Drafted DE’s ran a 4.77, while non-drafted ones ran a 4.86.

  • Defensive Tackles – Clog up that middle DT’s.  Drafted DT’s ran a 5.02 while non-drafted DT’s ran a 5.17.

  • Outside Linebacker – OLB’s need to be fast to chase those running backs or get to the QB.  Drafted OLB’s ran a 4.65 and non-drafted ones ran a 4.75.

  • Inside Linebacker – Speed is becoming more and more important as they have to cover these fast TE’s now.  Drafted ILB’s ran a 4.72, while non-drafted ones ran a 4.84.

  • Safeties – Not a super big discrepancy here: 4.56 to 4.59.

  • Cornerbacks – Who’s going to cover the receivers?  This guy.  Speed, speed, speed.  Drafted CB’s ran a 4.47, while non-drafted ones ran a 4.54.  Out of the 108 CB’s I had in my database, 57 ran a sub 4.49 and only 8 weren’t drafted.

Obviously, there is more to being drafted than just running fast.  You have to perform well on everything, but for some reason this 40 yard dash is the big highlight of the combine.  Maybe teams think if they can run a fast 40 relative to their position, it shows how athletic they are and that speed can’t be taught.

This isn’t the end all be all, but use these numbers as a gage.  If you run better than the number for the drafted players, a little pressure is off and you can be more relaxed through the rest of your drills.  If you didn’t hit it, then you know you have to crank it up on everything else.

Play with these numbers as you like, just be prepared to run fast at the combine.