This Thursday will start the 2013 NFL Draft.  It has become such a big deal that they separate the first round for Thursday night, then divide the rest of the rounds on Saturday and Sunday.  This will be the fourth year that I make draft predictions based on what a player did during the NFL Combine.  

Take a look at how I did with my predictions from last year’s NFL Draft.

What I do is take one player for most of the positions, today will be offense, and guess a round where they will be drafted based on the 40 yard dash and other measurables they might have performed at the combine.  I’m not the biggest college football fan so outside of Ohio State and some Big Ten studs, I usually only recognize the top flight players from college football.  Thus, some of my picks you might not recognize unless you truly follow college football.

Let’s get started.

Running Back

I am choosing Knile Davis from Arkansas.  Mr. Davis ran a 4.37 in the 40 yard dash, jumped 33.5 inches in his vertical, and showed some strength benching 225, 31 times.  He is 5′ 10″ and 227 pounds which shows some good size and speed for a running back.  His agility drill times weren’t the fastest, but hopefully with that size and strength he can break enough tackles to make an NFL team want to draft him.  That in mind, I see him going in the fourth round.

Wide Receiver

They really look for speed at the receiver position.  Based on the data I keep, from the last three drafts the average 40 of a receiver who was drafted was 4.46.  A non-drafted receiver was 4.53.  That being said, I’m going to guess that Ryan Swope of Texas A&M will go in the third round.  He ran a 4.34 in the 40, had a 37 inch vertical, and above average bench press.  Plus, he is 6′ and 205 so he has some size.  In the last three drafts, only 2 players who ran in the 4.3’s did not get drafted.  One had a history of injuries (which I didn’t know about) and the other went to a really small school.  Swope comes from a pretty big program and has had Ryan Tannehill and Johnny Football throwing to him.  I think he’ll be fine.

Tight End

I’m going to use this position to guess where Jake Stoneburner is going to go.  The tight end from the Ohio State University ran the third best 40 out of tight ends, 4.65.  He wasn’t targeted much at OSU, but he could catch.  They bulked him up to play tight end.  His other measurables weren’t bad highlighted by running the fastest 20 yard shuttle (4..27).  Suffice it to say, tight ends are hot commodities.  I think he gets in with a sixth round pick.

Tackle

I’ve heard that this draft is weak in skill positions and the “unsexy” positions will probably draft high.  Tackles are highly regarded so I think Lane Johnson of Oklahoma will have a big day.  He ran a 4.72 in the 40 which was second this year, but in the last three years only one other person that I have data on ran faster than a 4.8 and he did get drafted.  Johnson is 6′ 6″ and 303 pounds.  He also had the top 3 cone drill and broad jump scores and second in the vertical jump for tackles.  In fact, he ranked in the top 5 in every measurable among tackles.  I’d be shocked if he drops to the third round, but based on these scores unless he sucked at his position drills, I think he is going in the first round.

Guard

I can’t figure out guards.  I think it might be one of the positions where they really do value game-tape a little more than combine skills.  Jonathan Cooper of North Carolina isn’t super tall (6′ 2″ and 311 pounds), but has some good measurables.  In the last three drafts, 6′ 2″ was the shortest out of the guard prospects and 2 out of those 3 athletes were drafted.  Cooper had the fifth best 40 at 5.07, the second best broad jump at 108 inches, and the second best bench press at 35 reps.  Only one other person in the last three drafts benched more than that, so I gotta think that is highly valued.  I’m going to say a fifth round pick.

Center

Another position that is tough to get a grasp on, but I’m going to start with the guy that had the best numbers across the board, Brian Schwenke, from California.  He had the best 40 among centers at 4.99, plus the best 3 cone drill, broad jump, and second best bench press.  In the past, there have been centers that have had a good mix of speed and strength that haven’t been drafted.  That being said, I’m going to say he goes in the sixth round.

On Thursday, I will go through my defensive choices and then we can sit and wait for the draft to start that evening.

Photo Courtesy of RMTip21 on Flickr